Amid a debate about stock market investors underestimating the risks from the coronavirus-led shutdown of the global economy, China risk is reemerging. How the U.S. responds may determine the direction of the stock market.
The U.S. has long contended that Chinese telecommunications-equipment maker Huawei Technologies is a risk to national security. It has been contended that the Chinese can spy on the U.S. and other countries through back doors built into Huawei technology.
There is a report that the U.S. is amending an export rule to block the sale of certain semiconductors to Huawei. This is in addition to prior restrictions on exports of U.S. technology to Huawei.
There is a swift response from China in a tweet by Hu Xijin, the influential editor of the Global Times, which has close ties to the Chinese government. He said China may declare Apple AAPL,
Earlier this week, President Trump said “right now I just don’t want to speak to [Chinese President Xi Jinping],” adding he’s “very disappointed” with China and its response to the coronavirus pandemic. Trump said he’s “looking at” Chinese companies that trade on U.S. stock exchanges but don’t follow U.S. accounting rules.
How will this play out? Let’s examine with the help of a chart.
Chart
Please click here for an annotated chart of Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco and Boeing.
Note the following:
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
• The chart shows that after the coronavirus-related dip, Apple stock approached prior highs.
• The chart shows that Qualcomm and Cisco rallied from the lows but nowhere near their prior highs.
• The chart shows a big drop in Boeing stock. Boeing had problems prior to the coronavirus, and now Boeing’s customers have more planes than they need for the time being.
• In the previous trade war between the U.S. and China, Apple CEO Tim Cook was successful in keeping both President Trump and the Chinese government happy. The big risk is that Cook may not be able to pull off that feat again.
• A lot of money is tied to the S&P 500 Index SPX,
• Stock market investors have been hiding in five big tech stocks of Apple, Amazon AMZN,
What does it all mean?
Investing is about risks and rewards. Risks in the stock market today are significantly higher than generally believed. On the other hand, good news on antivirals or vaccines could cause a massive short-squeeze, potentially prompting stocks to rise to new highs.
Under these circumstances, investors should neither be bears nor bulls. Investors should follow the analytical framework of protection bands and stay nimble based on new data. To learn more about the framework and protection bands, please read “Stock market investors are asking ‘should I buy or sell?’ Here’s how to decide.”
Answers to your questions
Answers to some of your questions are in my previous writings. Please click here for details.
Disclosure: Arora Report portfolios have positions in Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook. Nigam Arora is the founder of The Arora Report, which publishes four newsletters. He can be reached at Nigam@TheAroraReport.com.
